Together with our partners at the University of Zurich, we added an extra piece to the puzzle improving our understanding of the dispersal patterns, and landscape connectivity of African wild dogs in the Kavango-Zambezi Trans Frontier Conservation Area (KAZA TFCA) ecosystem.

Thanks to the long-term population monitoring data at BPC, it was possible to examine how variations in demographic rates contributed to annual population fluctuations. We found that the number of wild dog pups that survived to become yearlings contributed most to annual population growth underpinning the crucial role of reproductive success in determining the long-term viability of this species. We showed that immigration and, therefore, habitat connectivity, is critical for population recovery and preventing local extinctions when stochastic population fluctuations resulted in lower population numbers.

Using a dispersal-simulation framework and over 20 years of satellite imagery on the Okavango Delta, we projected the impact of climate change-induced extreme conditions on African wild dog dispersal and connectivity. In wetter-than-normal conditions across the entire KAZA TFCA ecosystem – one of several possible climate change scenarios - we observed a 12% reduction in dispersal success and a 17% increase in dispersal duration. Importantly, due to the central role of the greater Okavango Delta wildlife areas as a critically important habitat for endangered African wild dogs, these impacts were even more pronounced in this part of Northern Botswana: dispersal success diminishing by as much as 78%. Depending on the extent of the Okavango’s annual flood, alternative dispersal corridors emerged, some of which were close to or through human-dominated landscapes and human activities where the potential for human-wildlife conflict is increased. Understanding these patterns and predictable impacts in the context of climate change may prove crucial for preserving vital connectivity corridors and mitigating human-wildlife conflict.